6pm Saturday predictions

Been on the hustings all day, and I could be wrong. ( Won't say why and what I prefer --it would take too long)
1. Biggest informal vote ever in Australia's history
2. Hung parliament ( I hope not )
3. Back in 3years time or less wondering why we all allowed the Greens to take control the Senate ( all of us partly responsible because the Greens are trying to gain a stronger foothold .  As for that foothold in...yrs time , more like a toe hold.  
Enough said.  Its Six O'clock Saturday 21st August 2010 ,  and the polling booths are starting to count .

Nothing could be worse than the Greens in control

A lot of people at the polling centres won't think that . The long suffering public will meet well intentioned young people who think the Greens will do great things for the country -  talk about the future and the environment in exciting new ways which make the major parties  look almost backward in focus ( not true ,just looks that way) . Presumably too,  many will see them as an option apart from the major parties,  who never seem to stop squabbling .( the current ads don't help )

If only a few of those well intentioned people stood as independants instead of with a party whose primary l agenda items  is not what the majority of Australians want , let alone can accept .As Voltaire  might have said "I will fight to death to make sure their voice is heard .........but not to those few run  the country"  .

Julia Gillard doesn't recognise she has no credibility in education

Her performance pay idea is so out of touch it isn't even acceptable to the teachers she thinks she's helping. As Pyne, said the money will be lost , and she would know it too if she wasn't the only one running their policy on the run .

How much tax does it take to turn the lights off?

Most troubling for the electorate , and especially green and labor supporters,  must be the way Penny Wong wanders all over the territory of solutions , when she wants us to take "the problem" seriously .Can't go anywhere if you haven't worked on both convincingly .
Change she certainly believes in ( her own mind) , but has she opened her mouth too soon in  moving from hot air talk  to...... hot , cold and unpredictable talk ? "The first thing we will do is tax you" - then we will decide who to give the money too .  Mere technology of tax talk is simple compared to being confused about what to do ( and not saying so )  Sounds like she has as big a problem about change as any out there in the atmosphere.

As Tom on the panel of qanda implied last night,  she can't sit still and be convincing; Tony Jones is not the only Australian in the audience  whose now very aware of it .  

Unstable, unreasonable, unrepresentative governance

OK people ( no polys online here ) , despite all the hype - I suggest
"The most unsatisfactory outcome from the coming Federal Election would be for the Greens to hold the balance of power" .
Do you not agree?  What are you going to do about it ?

Are we really that stupid ?

Since when has the length of deliberation justified one member of Parliament adopting the role of Governor -General   ?( Julia Gillard justifying her dismissal of PrimeMinister Rudd ).
Since when is the government serious about helping us pay less for energy  ( Don't you hate those annoying energy watch ads and those very annoying agents of the government who ring up or appear on the doorstop to encourage us be as moral  as possible -Trying to bribe us with gifts  that we actually pay for !!!!

The independants: We love you , whether we like you or not .Nick, Steve and ..........

While  Bob Brown might smile that his party has the advantage of being able to take the high moral ground ( who said it he could hold it!)  many of us will try to support THOSE  independants  and members in the SENATE who actually research and put their BACKBONES into what they can do .
The problem looming is we get more wannabes and less wanna work's
How can we keep these hardworking people  in,  and get new ones ?
Where are the Libs and Nationals on this ?

We don't need more airy fairy edge dwellers with more power than common sense ; Their  quick fiz confidence is about as useful as it is for Rudd .  - one day when conservation is just a lot of hot air in political footballs  will some greens realise that life/ progress is a lot more complex than Bob says it is .

After all if RUDD loses , he could well blame all the dummies around him who follow Browns lead into well intentioned incompetence . 

Is Rudd really the problem?

Yesterday's Australian newspaper seems to reflect widespread unhappiness with the leadership. But is it really Ruddy's problem ?More here  

New Minority Parties - My Cherry Pickin Party

What do you think ? The existing ones are at risk - whose going to fill the gap ?
Surely we care who fills the gap in the Senate at a Fed level . What would you call them?
Should the liberal party consider having a muslim leader ; a woman leader-After all their conservative status has been grabbed  from them and any more woosing out to the cynical materialists in the congregation is losing them votes outside

My new party is called the "Cherry picking party "the CPP " Not so much about more beer,  but better beer . Not about partisan politics,  but consensus politics" .I have no creed , I'm just about results ! ( and unfortunately I'd have lots of followers!!!!) Missed out on the 4% last time - wouldn't miss this time!

Nice theory you say ? Well the thing I like about the CPP is it its INTO fine tuning to the practical. If it doesn't work,  I 'm not interested. If it doesn't work,  ditch it .
Its the encapsulation of all things quick fix . no knives policy; zero tolerance policies; shutup and listen policies , get everyone together and agree with me policies, no drugs policy ; more taxesand we will solve everything policy, justdo it policies , nomore strategy papers policies ......add some for us go on ........
I'm joking of course .
But what do YOU really think - I was obviuosly off my leash just then. 

 I could make money,       and I need it !But we prayed this morning at the start to keep our eyes on public good policy . What a downer!

How much can the Federal government really do?

What's going on here ? Why is Labor trying to do the impossible ? another god delusion? Hasn't Labor had enough grand plans of atmospheric proportions?   From what realm did the heavenly minded  health and education policies announced last week come from ?.
Can Labor really maintain the myth that it can do the impossible . Why do they ?

An education revolution and now a health revolution . Who do they think they are ? 

Who do we think they are ?

Good to see some talk about confession and other esoteric control words . 

Do us all good as a community to recognize our sense of powerlessness- might make for  more practical bipartisan and less knee-jerk politics before the election . 

What do you think ?

Turnbull - Lets pray he knows/shows what real leadership is

Sometimes leaders have a choice . Sometimes they have no choice.....Often either way its hard . .Sometimes leaders have a choice . Sometimes they have no choice but to do the right thing.
Turnbull doesn't really have a choice this week , not unless he wants to prove,  like Latham,  that he's a leader like no other; A liberal leader who  doesn't really follow the lead of liberal and liberated democracies ; One who can drive the party further with his version of everything and  his version of "what needs to happen" .

Choking on Chinese emission projections

The Climate Cretins are whipping up a classic "scarenario" with projections of Chinese CO2 emissions over the next few decades. A number of articles on the same theme were referenced at http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002763.html

And it is important to note the common thread in this sorry sequence of beat-ups. There is a very pregnant "IF" at the start of each claim, as per Alexis Madrigal at Wired, 8 Feb 2008.
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/02/chinas-2030-co2.html He said;

"If China's carbon usage keeps pace with its economic growth, the country's carbon dioxide emissions will reach 8 gigatons a year by 2030, which is equal to the entire world's CO2 production today." and;

"If the Chinese economy steps into our (USA)carbon footprint, all other greenhouse gas reduction efforts will be for naught."

Yes, you are right, it is the same old exaggerated IPCC dogs vomit, served for your repeat consumption.

According to http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph/env_co2_emi_percap-environment-co2-emissions-per-capita US emissions per capita are 19.48 tonnes CO2, while the highest amongst asian nations is Singapore with 13.813 tonnes, followed by Japan with only 9.612 tonnes. And given the cultural similarities and comparable population densities there is absolutely no excuse for trying to imply that China would ever reach the emission footprint of the USA.

The simple facts are that if China or India ever reach a highly developed economic level it will be on the Japanese model, not the USA model. And one must ask, "where, exactly, would one fit just one Los Angeles style, low density, mega urban sprawl between Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing, let alone the 50 odd that would be required to match a US emissions footprint?"

Note that current Chinese emissions are 2.66 tonnes per capita. So even if there was no technology based emission dividend for the Chinese from the 34 French nuclear reactors they have just signed up for, a trebling of their emissions would put them on 8 tonnes per capita, with a standard of living (averaged from the least developed regions to the cities) just above that currently enjoyed by the South Koreans @ 7.34 tonnes per capita.

Meanwhile, in the totally improbable case of a continuous annual economic growth of 10% per annum, matched by a similar increase in emissions over the 23 years to 2030, as envisaged in these preposterous articles, Chinese emissions would rise to 23.8 tonnes per capita. That is, 22% ABOVE the current US footprint and 147% above the current Japanese footprint.

You would have to put every Chinese adult in a Hummer to get anywhere near that outcome.

Clearly, these projected emission scenarios are a demonstration of either the most extreme ignorance of the relationship between energy and economics, or it is deliberate deception of the very worst kind.

Tired, cynical and not really listening

Tired cynical and not really listening
The real problem that has been so evident to those of us who have tried to talk to conservatives in teh last few years is there inability to really listen .

The Libs lack credibility in a number of key planning areas like health, labor relations and the environment. They think they know, when they are out of touch with those who clearly do. see for eg
We had a good time on the hustings , not because we agreed on much, but because we all got to talk more deeply about things that many in the community do not seem to care about. Most of us found the libs really unwilling to talk openly - what a tragedy . On election day here, we talked directly amongst ourselves across party lines about the challenges that the Libs faced .

To keep the power you have to cut it where it counts - in the credibility stakes .If you are not credible, or even too arrogant to listen the people who know, go quiet.
To be sure, with all the birdbath antics and shallow splashing, there is a great risk of superficiality and unsubstance driving the resul; but, at the end of the day incumbents need to punch hard at what's being talked about - the local libs were too comfortable about their "right to rule "--

The best form of defence when your in for 11 years is attack -- they didn't attack the simple rhetoric and make the most of competent alliegances ; ties that clearly could have worked for their benefit - we know because we know from talking to them , who the libs were really listening to . More could be said of course, but Yes the Libs need to take a very good look at themselves and No - it's not before time.

Predicting the outcome of 24th Nov

Why do we want to be so clever?
Do we desperatly want to prove that me too want to prove " i know something" Surely it's a bit like that . Takes one wannabe to know one.
Only God knows how much we don't . Hopefully His justice and mercy will help us continue to allow Australians to be blessed and be a blessing.
The liberals live in a comfort zone of their own making; making their reelection prospects much more difficult than they should be .
Rudd is a breath of fresh air because he is not running a set piece - he wants to get to the truth .
If anyone of the 2 leaders deserves to win ( not the party) Rudd does. We can work with a leader who admits they don't know something; one we hope too will be firm about fads and personal fantasies in his collegues .
I sure hope, if he wins, that he seeks out the advice he says he will ---on PC matters esp

Blunderbuss Brown on Lateline

It is not widely remembered that Latham's love in with the Greens last election produced a BIG downer for Labor . I won't be at all surprised if labors woosy and untidy association with the greens leaves them out in the cold again. This time its something much bigger than timber in tasmania - its so big that we can't get our heads around it.

Maybe the uncertainty and intangibility helps; if you prefer clouds to clarity? The best way to win elections is to create a fear and then solve it . The left partnership can do the former, but are they convincing about the latter?

Sure there is some sentimental and "sounds heavy" voters out there - but lets hope not too many .No more than last time I suspect . Let's hope the people use their reason a lot more than those party to the picture and shooting games gallery partnership presentation on Lateline last night.
Even if you believe the climates changing agenda is a key one we only have a few days to wait to see whether all the hype has worked the magic ; whether the campaign has a failed political aim , a failed practical commitment, or both .

Clearly Climate change talk will stand or fall on this election , so why wait until 2015 - only 5 days left to make history so spend more money on campaigns boys !! Have the scientists done their job and warned us well enough ?
Was it a good idea, if action MUST happen, to leave it to pollies to convince us ?

The greens and the political system were not credible in 2004, and they are still not credible .
Clearly , Labor could win the election if they were credible on matters of environment and ecomia. But they continue to woose out of the work and let the greens decide what flags to fly . While they don't do the hard yards themselves and carelessly let the greens provide the ever changing ammo of praxis, they remain as a team promoting some new target- totally unconvincing.

The ABC team did the greens a disservice by putting up a set 'its really the big issue of the election " advertising piece before the MC came on to speak on latelinetonight . a real Setup ! Who does the ABC lateline crew think they/ and we/ are- dumb? let the big election issues stand on their merits .

Bob Brown and the ABC are overdoing the fear factor (incl imagery abuse) and failing to convince on the " where we go to now factor "; the synergy of the 2 without real scientists speaking is just not credible ( the token scientist from overseas didn't tell us anything we didn't already know - "the job is hard" ; but back to nov 24 "what again is the job" - "going backwards to Kyoto "- haven't you got better tails for the donkey than old and incomplete ones?

The partners to the push mentioned nobel prize winning scientist and moral imperatives just one too many times, especially when neither were present to say yes - secondhand messages get the sus tick .
The greens are reknown for talking to the issues, but not thinking through them .......and it showed . The ABC, if they want to help the greens and Labor, need to be more convincing by being more probing of the shooting gallery games that they have seen so many times before. Pollies who want to win have to point to actions and process in a credible and local way.
If reason and good sense prevail, Labors 2007 reliance on the ephemeral agendas of the greens will prove, just like in 2004, - a lot of chasing after the wind.

The ravages of riches and rich parties

There is something really wrong with Australia in 2007 when we ( incl media here) don't even, with tokens at election time , acknowledge the real threats to our prosperity . When we ALL ( except someone like barnaby joyce yesterday ) are happy to play up to the illusion that "we have all we need" . In such a closed comfort zone mood the parties are able to ply us , not with their passion, but with more and better gifts .

I hunger for the politics of passion. Someone who knows what is wrong and has a mind to fix it .There 's lots wrong with how they spend our money , but few that have a mind to fix it ( except with a bigger hammer)
I see little evidence of competent economia focus on any side . Even the greens now ,it seems, have lost there way . Labor captures the libs territory and the greens as well. Changing territory though, has its price in cosmic and care level credibility.

One party can only capture the territory of another, when that party have lost the passion for it . Passion keeps the lead agency ahead and now its gone from the heartlands, the territory mentions on both sides are tokenistic and tame .

Rudd's education incentive is welcome, but fails to address the problem of dumbing down. Mind you, with a bit of luck a new labour policy of professional and public focus could stumble into their backdoor .

Years of libs meddling with fanciful visions of trickle down theory have never seen so little trickle down.
I , like many Austrailans, like Rudd, but would I put Labor in power? The old labor PM 's "stood "their yesterday - a sickening spectacle of blunt reactionary distraction . Their arrogance is offensive . I don't like any one of them . Home wreckers --wouldn't trust any of them to do anything properly .
Perhaps arrogance goes with the job, cause the Libs have had there fair share of fast moving fad driven plagerists. They are not as obviuos though.

I hope people vote for FF and the independants FIRST ( there i think some risk of that esp in the country) ---Not because they have yet the competence, but because they care - cause we need the minor parties to do , as Steve has done with all his ammendmnets in last few years " to GIVE ATTENTION TO PRAXIS and the detail .

And they do it " at their own expense". Just think, all that mail you recieved from polys in the last few weeks ----you paid for .
In that way he and FF can help keep the bastards ( the devil is in the detail ) honest " . Not much time though to get the momentum esp when the tax take is so good and there is the attraction of showtime and sweet talk.

Who really represents rural interests ?

What rural person could vote for Labor really?. They kick out Gavin and expect us to believe the wishy washy and weed in the wind O'Brien . Even when facing the audience on Landline this week the soft and muddle headed man can't even find the back bone to state a position that makes sustainability sense -no he said " if the people in the city think we are treating sheep badly the labor party will support the ...........rural people .... or something eqaully as hypocritical and full of bullsh " is he following Garrets lead? - having everything every which way ? .
As Mr Gaurgan pointed out - Kerry O brien is not willing to defend a position . Like so many dummies on environmetal mangemnet he thinks ( on sheep stirring) he can offer a technological out ( better mangemnet of sheep once they arrive in another country? )completely ignoring the incredible inhouse pressure on producers NOW and HERE . Is he not a A woose who would sell his soul to the devil of ignorance and fear before he would state the obvious vote winning and soul saving position - "we will support sheep industry from the simple -who think australia ideally should be covered in trees .....and who don't know YET how a sustainable grassland functions" .
God help us, because polys on LANDLINE this week sure seem incapable of even understanding our world.

Pity Mc Guaran can't get his act together either - recognising rural people need more than holy huddles in the market corner to survive - farmers need planners !Peter Mcguran used the same "anti bureaucratic- antiscientific and planning argument" as O ' brien (perhaps he thinks the market wil keep farmers farming and science has nothing to say on sustainability - What he is saying is THE VERY same as saying "I am willing to cut my own constuiticies throat here" - tis true! either sustainability has substance of scientists or it does not - either the truth matters to rural producers or it does not )
The N ationals are falling into the same container hold of techno fix and market fundamentalism that Obrien clearly is happy in ( pity it doesn't solve a single sustaiability issue for the people committing suicide on the strength of such city centric simplicities )

Left takeover of the Libs territory

Well you would have to not be watching to let it happen . Too many castle games and not enough attention to the battlefield?
The conservatives have only themselves to blame. I don't want a group of reactionaries running the country, but the Libs have had years to weed out the quickfixers and the "business is government" choir members who regularly smash their way around the chinashop . Try to work in their version of an "ideal workplace".

Getting rich is not hard provided you ignore everybody else. Conservative politics has become engrossed in private good and confused the whole business with public good.
Conservatives go down real well making cheap shots ( i don't think) accussing the left of simplicity when the right have breathed too hard on the window of ideas and see only themselves and their silly simple images of self in the fogged up mirror .

Failure to accept the cracks is helping to keep conservatives out of government . ( Rudd ,for example, is more honest about conservative weaknesses than Howard and could probably win because of it ) .What can they do about it in the next 4 weeks? tell us/ them about it ! Copyright Emperors academy

Look at me , look at me , look at me

Do you like what you see now the election has been called ? Is it a dysfunctional family with more front than Myers?

The ABC ask what the 3 big issues of the election are . Do they not know ? - Like most people who prefer big stories to small-----maybe they don't know and if told would they still wouldn't have enough patience/ commitment to follow the connections .

Regional autralia October 2007 . The badges on the party labels may have changed, but the solid objects behind them haven't changed from last time ,Worse still for Howard , the incumbents do not see that they have abdicated responsibility for really caring .

Depressed : - encouraging a Liberal politician who promoted a real reason to be depressed, to stay in charge of solutions, is a sign of being stuck in a deep rut -Yes we are still depressed and you ---- as our reps , do not know why! (Read telecom 2000 report - it talks about the dangers of the media driven and driven media agendas - relevant to the 3 issue listed here ) .

Deserted Do the feds really think we get help from people on the end of the phone - ( all the recent ads telling us so). Is help no longer a personal thing ? Rural areas have less professionals with credibility working there every day.

Deprived of a fair price for their produce While the wannabes run around offering quick fix solutions and loads of sympathy, the liberals best advocates ( the longsuffering advocates of innovative and individaul accomplishmnet) go hungry for real help. -- long term where it matters
Long term , even the jewels in the crown like - the dairy industry goes backwards . Land prices in rain fed areas might excite the real estate imbeciles, but they don't stop secondary industry there from still paying a pittance for the product .
No dairy farmer can afford to pay the cost of off farm help !The weekly crimes papers like the novel ABc reporters , however will survive , exploring the booms and busts instead of restoring the basis for a sustaiable crust .
Get real you ecomia ignoramusues . We don't know who to vote for anymore! You don't know your household well enough to command our attention !

Tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber?

Like us, perhaps, you are not looking forward to the 3 yr Corrall?
-the forced choice between 2 stale and suspect images pressed up against a window-

Here's how to show real choice-- Does your local member walks around with a lot of yes talk , but acts like the chain is short and tight?
YOU Have at least 4 votes at the next election -2 in the senate and 2 in reps . Consider using your first to vote for the minor parties and some of the dedicated and passionate independants FIRST. Your major party interests are often not affected by such choices .
The major parties also rely too much on compliance from the masses. They don't have to take OUR opinion too seriously, when there are only 2 major groupings.

Which of the 2 parties can you trust ? Maybe neither ? Have they, in many areas like environment, become all things to all men? What shadows does your member really cast- --the shadows of mere rhetoric?
SO make the most of your intelligence and listen for the tuff stuff of independants. Steve Crikey has yet to crack the curtain ?

Esp Check the courageous small ones for yourselves ( Here are some ----this list will grow if you show us how they fit the above criteria - make sure they are not just stooges for one of the bigger parties )

Independants
QLD
www.jamesbaker.com.au


Minor parties
National Barnaby Joyce